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| Soccer, Horses, and MBS/RWS talk With the IRs up and running, what better place to exchange tips and techniques on how to tip the odds in your favour! [Please note that with the passing of the Remote Gambling Act, Internet gambling links and Adverts are no longer allowed in this section.] |
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#1
20-01-2010, 12:17 PM
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* Useful Betting Strategy *
In the world of soccer betting, like in real life, it is important to define a goal and work towards it. If you start uncontrolled betting, with high stakes to make up for the loss, if you bet every day without any aim, things will usually not go the way you wanted.
First and foremost is to set up your betting fund. That should be the money that you are always prepared to lose. Most important rule is that you never borrow money for betting. Do not even try to make up for your lack of money in life by betting. You also need to set your goal in terms of profit. How much money does satisfy you? If you deposit $50, when you get up to the $350, you should withdraw your $300 and leave your original deposit. This way, you will actually feel the benefit of your efforts. Money that is still on your account does not belong to you, but your bookie as long as you don't withdraw it! There are two basic groups of players. There are people who like to risk a lot. They are usually betting on a short term basics and play for outsiders with a large odds. Money won this way is substantial, but winnings come very rare. Probability for beating the bookie in this way is very small. Other group of people do not like to risk. They bet on favorites with huge stakes and small odds. As a result there is an illusion of wining, but when they lose they lose heavily. Bookies know this stuff, and they underestimate favorites in terms of small odds. Probability to win is far more greater than odd so our advice is not to bet on games with small odds. The most important thing that you need to stick on if you want to beat the bookie is self control. If you start winning, do not raise your stakes immediately and take irrational risks. Always withdraw money that you plan to win and keep on betting with your original deposit. When you hit a losing streak, do not get upset. Stay calm and carry on with your betting strategy. Why bookies usually has the last laugh? Probably you are not aware of the fact that bookies profit, in most cases, comes because of the bad money management by their customers. Very often, after a profitable round, bookies publish exceptional odds, asian handicaps and variety of new games on their site, which drives players to raise their deposits and stakes dramatically. This situation ends with a few wins for players, but bookies know that in few weeks that account will be empty - because of the bad money management of course. Professional players are well aware of this, and they are patiently waiting for opportunities and they bet with precisely defined stakes. Being a professional gambler does not mean that you need to know football more than your bookie, but knowing how to manage your betting funds. Important points to note * There is no theory as 100% winning opportunity. Please refrain from believing into sources claiming that it is a sure win tips. Bear in mind that there is always a percentage of chance going either way. * Good luck also plays a part in your fortune. On certain occasions, you may be on winning streak. But at times, things will not go your way. If you have been down on luck, it is advisable to take a break. * Human beings are known to be rash and often commit the wrong tasks at the wrong time. Always stay calm and never act impulsive. * Refrain from placing a huge betting stake even if you are extremely confident. You may easily end up in a debt. There is always a limit. * If you happen to lose, please do not curse and swear. In soccer betting, there are only 3 likelihood - win, lose or draw. You are responsible for your own actions. * In Chinese, there is a famous betting idiom: 愿赌服输 
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#2
20-01-2010, 12:34 PM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
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#3
20-01-2010, 01:19 PM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
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#6
20-01-2010, 05:37 PM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
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__________________
retirement start from 01/03/210 now in newbie and football section hiding from my zapper frenz  Armen....救星
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#9
08-07-2011, 10:46 AM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
I am sharing 2 new articles which I came across in another forum.
1st article: 10 Things You Need To Be A Successful Sports Bettor 1 - Understand the concept of value Critical. If you don't have this, walk away. Sure you might be certain that a 1.45 favourite is going to win, but are the odds being offered giving any value? Plenty of times I've heard casual gamblers say "There's no way this team is going to lose this game." Well they might be legitimate favourites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds being offered? Betting with this frame of mind is a little like saying an over-priced 2000 wide-screen TV was good value just because you really really really wanted it. It doesn't work. Value is a simple concept, but most of the betting public don't understand this. And perhaps thankfully so, because its this naive or 'square' money that can skew the market, leaving great opportunities for the minority of gamblers who do know how to recognise value. 2 - Basic Maths If you've ever said the phrase "I'm not a maths guy but....", then you probably shouldn't be a betting guy either. While plenty of gamblers can make a success of it by betting on instinct and 'feel', to be successful long term you need a viable staking plan and you need to understand what the odds reflect in terms of probability. In short, its a numbers game, and you need an adequate relationship with division and multiplication as a minimum. 3 - Understand how the bookmakers make the odds This depends upon the popularity of the event, but in general, bookmaker odds will be more a reflection of what they expect the general public to play, rather than on the actual probabilities of either outcome. Of course, it's not quite that simple, but in general, bookmakers will set their odds so as to attract betting on either side of the odds, so as to balance their liability and take their commission. This leaves smart gamblers to find great value opportunities where the general public's opinion is just plain wrong. It also means that great value can be found on events where there is expected to be greater interest than normal by the occasional and casual gambler, who lets be honest, knows nothing or very little in terms of profitable betting strategy. Events like the Super Bowl, Cup finals and major horse racing events are prime candidates for this sort of opportunity. 4 - Ability to fall in love with the ugly duck The longer I have been betting, the more I have come to fall in love with the team that nobody likes. In fact, I feel better about a potential bet the uglier it looks on paper. Sounds counter intuitive I know, but the less the general public likes a team, the more I like the look of them in terms of value. Especially a team that might have performed well over a long period but may have had a bad run of maybe 4 or 5 games. Just watch the general public jump off them, and watch their value rise. 5 - Don't dwell on the past or celebrate for too long Don't let a recent losing run throw you off your game. Put it out of your mind and stay with your analysis and have faith that the wheel will turn. Similarly, don't let a recent winning streak give you false courage and lead you to over extend yourself. Again, stay with your analysis and stick with your plan. 6 Don't hope for The Big Score Multi-bets. Parlays. Teasers. Whatever you like to call them, do not bet them. Ever. Sure they offer the promise of the big score, the big pay day, but in terms of value, they are terrible. Look at it this way. If you place a multi-bet of 4 legs, and you were getting full price even money odds of 2.00 for each leg, the odds for that multi would be 16.00. Now lets look at a real world example where you're being offered lets say 1.90 for 'even money' with the bookmaker taking out 5%: the odds for that same 4 legs multi would be just 13.00. That's taking out close to 19% of the full price of that bet. You're never going to win long term with that sort of slice being gouged out of your odds. Stick with single bets and think long term. 7 - A long term sensibility It would be great to get rich quick, but its not going to happen. Think long term. Build your betting bankroll, steadily increase the amount you bet on each game, and soon enough you'll find you're making some decent pocket money on the side, and maybe, just maybe, if you stick with it long enough, you can make a living wage out of it. Lets look at a real world example, BettingExpert's own Tip of the Day. Since it began in 2008, BettingExpert's daily Tip has raised a return of 3% while betting over 1121 tips and 8312 units staked. Lets say we start with a modest bankroll of 1000 and we will bet 2% of our varying bankroll for a 10 unit tip, making the amount bet, 20.00. Earning an average of 3% return on each unit, at the end of those 8312 units bet, our bankroll will have climbed to in the range of 1500.00. Not a bad return of 50% on your initial bankroll and your 10 unit bet stake has climbed from 20 to 30. And what's even better, the tips were free and verifiable. (To see how to manage your betting bankroll in this way, to gain maximum value read the article Managing that Money) 8 - A reasonable betting bankroll If you want to make money, you need to start with a betting bankroll capable of absorbing losses. If you're going to bet in units, with an average bet of 1 unit, I would recommend a bankroll of at least 50 units. Minimum. OK so maybe you can only afford a bankroll of 1000, which means your average unit will be 20. Sounds small time I know and you want to be a high roller. Well a 1000 bankroll can quickly turn into a substantial amount with consistent value recognition and an intelligent staking plan. Lets say you bet 200 bets a year. And for argument sake lets say they are all of 1.90 odds, and lets say you hit at a 54% strike rate. Well with a fractional Kelly staking plan (see Managing that Money Blog post), at the end of those 200 bets, depending on your winning consistency which should even out over a long term, your bankroll will be in the ballpark of 1100.00. Yeah I hear what you're saying - that's only 100.00 profit over the year. Well, that's just betting 200 bets a year, with a 2.6% average return per bet. Now imagine you bet 400 bets in a year and able to get still a modest 5% average return. That bankroll of 1000 at the end of the 400 bets would be in the ballpark of 1400 and at the end of 5 years that bankroll will be in the range of 5000, and after 10 years, around 30,000 with an average unit of 600. Not bad is it. Of course the hard part is to get that consistent 5% return, and perhaps the harder part is grinding it out until you build that bank up over a number of years. But the point here is to show how starting out modest with a viable bankroll and staking plan, can turn into genuine profits in the long term. 9 - Not having the need to 'make it interesting' I've heard it plenty of times. "Oh sometimes I bet just to make it interesting." OK, well that's fine. But don't expect to be a long term winner. If you want to make it interesting, join a fantasy league or a tipping competition where you're not putting down real money. 10 - Ability to believe in any and all conceivable Gods or transcendental possibilities Hey, it cant hurt.
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#10
08-07-2011, 10:52 AM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
2nd article:
Managing that money What's the best way to manage you betting bankroll? How much should you bet on any one bet? Is there a way to optimize value in the betting markets? Andrew takes us through a few of the options and tell us how he determines how much money to put down. There are two essential characteristics to being a successful long term sports gambler. The first is the ability to recognise value in a given market, and the second is how to manage your investment bankroll. In other words, how to optimise that value and manage risk. Many gamblers have the ability to recognise value in a particular sports gambling market, whether that be by 'gut' and 'feel' or some statistical model to asses the probability of an outcome. But once value has been identified, how much do you invest in that wager to make the most of that value while protecting your bankroll? There are many and varied investment strategies that can and have been applied to sports gambling, a number borrowed from the world of finance. Any Google search however will surely confuse the uninitiated, as a carnival of mutant theories and strategies parade down the page. Regardless, by the end of this article it's hoped even the most inexperienced of sports gamblers will be familiar with the most popular money management strategies, will have a better understanding of the fundamentals behind money management and how to increase their chances of joining the small percentage of sports gamblers who make a long-term profit. A slice of the pie One strategy is to maintain a constant percentage of your bankroll with each bet. Its assumed that this method will protect any gambler from losing their entire bankroll as the amount to be bet diminishes as your bankroll diminishes. It's a little like Zeno's paradox. The arrow will never reach its target as it halves the distance at each interval. However, while unlikely, even betting 5% of a $1000 bankroll will leave you with a bankroll of less than $200 after 33 consecutive losses. But more to the point, it assumes equal value for each bet and additionally it expects equal odds being offered for each bet. Would you really want to bet the same percentage on a $1.70 favourite as a $3.50 outsider without any recognition of their respective value? The answer should clearly be no. Further, even if you only bet on $1.70 favourites, is the probability of each $1.70 favourite winning identical in each instance? In other words, does each $1.70 favourite offer the same value? It could be the case, but its unlikely. The Slice of the Pie strategy while offering a manner of managing your bankroll, fails to recognise value as a key part of a successful management strategy. Essentially, in the end, it will only manage the way you lose your money. Inside out This method is similar to the Slice of the Pie, except that it takes the further step of taking into account the odds being offered for a particular bet. So for example, you bet %5 of a $1000 bankroll as a standard unit, $50. If betting on $2 odds, the unit remains $50, but when betting on say a $11 outsider, that unit becomes $5. It can be calculated like this: eg. ($1000 * 0.05) / (11 -1) = 5 This works fine when betting on outsiders but what if we wish to bet on short priced favourites? If betting 5% of any bankroll, betting on a $1.05 favourite would mean betting your entire bankroll. Now I would never recommend betting on anything remotely close to a $1.05 favourite let alone your entire bankroll, (unless the odds were on the sun rising tomorrow, but even then I would probably spend a nervous night watching the darkened night sky). Regardless, the limitations of the Inside Out strategy should be clear as it still doesn't take into account the recognised value of a particular betting proposition. K is for Kelly While it still has its critics, the Kelly Method has stood the test of time since its creation in the mid 1950's. Essentially this method takes into account both the probability of a given team or player winning and the value of the odds offered in relation to that probability - the overlay. This means that it suggests you bet more depending upon how great the overlay, but it also means you have to assess the probability of a given outcome with consistency. (Assessing probability is something we will discuss in future Blog posts). The overlay is calculated simply as: Overlay = probability * (odds - 1) There have been many amendments to the Kelly method over the years, and although the fundamentals remain the same, each edition of the method offers its own insights. The Full Kelly - While a proven method, the Full Kelly can make a wild ride of your betting experience and can suggest risky amounts be bet. It can easily recommend a bet of even %50 of your bankroll, which can reduce your bankroll to merely nothing in short time. On the other hand, a winning streak can send your banroll into orbit It is calculated as: Percentage of bankroll to bet = overlay / (odds - 1) e.g With an overlay of 0.20 and odds of $2.40 and a bankroll of $1000, the Full Kelly would recommend a bet of $143, or 14.3% of the bankroll. The Fractional Kelly - This is a simple and conservative amendment to the Full Kelly method whereby the gambler only bets a certain fraction of the recommended bet. It could be %50, known as the Half Kelly, 25% the Quarter Kelly or any percentage you feel comfortable with. Further, while the intuition may be that this will reduce your winnings according to the percentage you choose, it can be shown that a fractional Kelly method can return better results longterm than the Full Kelly method. The Constant Kelly - The same as the Full Kelly method, but rather than recommending a percentage of a varying amount, it recommends a percentage of a constant. So for example, instead of suggesting 15% of a diminishing or improving bankroll, it recommends 15% of a constant amount. Busy busy busy One of the drawbacks of any Kelly method is the issue of wanting to bet on multiple events at the one time. Lets say there are 4 games you want to bet on, being played at the same time. And what if the recommended percentage of bankroll for Bet A is 25%, Bet B is 35% and Bet C 35% and Bet D 40%? This amounts to betting 135% of your bankroll, which is obviously impossible. One solution to this problem is to adjust the percentages proportionally so that 100% of the bankroll can be bet. i.e Bet A would proportionally become 19% and so on, 25% being 19% of the 135% recommended. The issue with this is that firstly, you're still betting %100 of your bankroll on 4 events which could all easily lose, and secondly, it means you're not giving the same value to say a 25% bet on a busy day (where in this example it becomes %19) as you would on a day when it might be your only bet. One way to solve this is to use a fractional method so that no matter how many events you want to bet on in a single day, the total recommended is unlikely to eclipse %100 of your bank. This could well work, but as I know myself, it is easily possible to be betting on up to and over 20 events in a single day, meaning the %100 could still be eclipsed. So what do you suggest? Personally, I use a 10% fractional Kelly method. This allows me to protect my overall bankroll while I diversify and place many bets on sporting events being played daily. So if my bankroll is $5000, and I am betting on a $2.60 team with an assessed winning probability of %50, the recommended bet amount would be calculated as: (bankroll * chosen fraction) * (overlay/(odds - 1)) i.e ($5000 * 0.10) * (0.30 / 1.60) = $93.75 Try it out for yourself While many bankroll management strategies are available to apply, I believe that the fractional Kelly method is best, as it takes into consideration the odds on offer, the probability assessed of a team or players winning and the resulting value identified in order to recommend a bet amount that will optimise that value without risking your bankroll and an early end to your career as a sports gambler.
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#11
23-07-2011, 09:34 PM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
tks for the info. good good
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#12
25-07-2011, 09:34 AM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
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Glad to be of help to beat the bookies.
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#14
22-08-2011, 05:18 AM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
to welcomemdc you want to advertise your stuff pls tell sam. If not his mod will del all your posts. This forum doesn't allow you to advertise your stuff for free.
I find it riddiculous though. Look you're trying to teach others how to make a 10k income just by spending 15 mins to 3 hrs per day. Just only 9.90 for some secret. You need to sell this secret of yours 1010 times before you can make 10k in 1 month or just simply make 10k since there's no guarantee you'll be selling it every month. Ok you need 1010 ppl to buy your book each paying 9.90 to make 10k. You need to advertise, then you need to convince people to read what you have written and then actually pay to buy the book. Let me ask you how long did it take you to write this msg to post on this forum and spam all the threads to advertise? I'm sure it's much longer than 15 mins. Probably a few hours. You need to register a new nick and wait for it to clear moderation before you can freely post here to advertise. You see it doesn't make sense. You're clearly spending more time here advertising your book then actually spending 15 mins - 3 hrs needed to make your 10k. Since you're the master i assume you just need 15 mins to make your 10k. You see this doesn't add up. You spend so much time and effort to advertise here so that ppl would buy your book and your posts get deleted that claims it takes so little time to make so much money yet u take so much time and effort to advertise this and it's not even guranteed.
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#15
22-08-2011, 06:53 AM
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Re: * Useful Betting Strategy *
Good advice. But I have not finished reading.
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